企极 (CHG) | 关于互联网+传统产业,9个观点帮你拨云见日
“互联网+”的内涵即为传统产业利用互联网转型升级。但是为什么要转?转型的方向是什么?到底如何转?而最核心的问题是:同样是传统产业转型,有互联网和没有互联网有什么不同?
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关于互联网+传统产业,9个观点帮你拨云见日

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“互联网+”的内涵即为传统产业利用互联网转型升级。但是,为什么要转?转型的方向是什么?到底如何转?而最核心的问题是:同样是传统产业转型,有互联网和没有互联网有什么不同?阿里研究院基于最新商业实践观察和互联网经济研究,提出以下一些观点与业界朋友商榷。

1、转型的关键是实现价值流的快速流动

“流动性”是理解整个商业世界秘密的一把钥匙,“价值流”(Value Stream)能够快速流动是商业的本质。价值流,指某个具体产品或服务从原材料到最终递交客户的所有环节和过程。价值流理论既适用于实物商品也可用于服务提供的分析。以服装为例,价值流包括从棉花种植、棉花流通、纺纱织布、面辅料流通、打版设计、裁剪、缝制、分销零售,直到客户购买的全流程。同样对于服务类的Uber,其价值流则是从司机接单开始,驾车到目的地,接到乘客按照行驶路线到达最终目的地,结束计费的全过程。互联网经济也遵循价值流分析方法。譬如,电商平台的价值流是指从流量到成交的全部过程。

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可悲的是,对几乎所有的行业,在价值创造的全过程,90%以上的环节和时间都是不创造价值的。比如,原材料堆积在库房,生产线上等待加工的半成品,成品从一个仓库搬移到另外一个仓库,仓库里面为促销而准备的大批商品,电商平台复杂的购物路径等等。如果企业能够通过有效的价值流管理,让价值更快速的传递,经营业绩就卓越,反而则糟糕。从这个角度说,流动性就是赚钱的速率。流动性就是赚钱的速率,可以直观地反映为企业的库存周转率、资金周转率等指标。Zara每件衣服的平均价格只有LV的1/5,但是前者的税前利润率比后者还要高,这得益于Zara每年12次的库存周转率,而LV只有不到2次。国内内衣品牌“都市丽人”,做到78天的库存周转(同行业约为200天),就可以做到在服装业整体低迷情况下,逆势增长。所有企业都梦想追求高毛利,但是真正企及却需要很深的积累,而高周转却是转变观念的事情。套用一句股市的行话:高毛利率+高周转是双击,而低毛利率+低周转率则是双杀。在高周转的条件下,如果企业能做到高于行业平均的溢价当然是锦上添花。

工业经济时代,福特从炼钢到整车下线只需要120个小时,而同期的欧洲车厂需要300个小时。IT时代, Zara从商品设计到上市不到2周。戴尔公司从客户打电话到电脑装上车只需要36个小时。价值流的快速流动帮助这些公司攀登上同行业的顶峰。在没有互联网的时代,这些公司怎么做到?价值流可以划分为信息流、物料流和资金流三种形式。其中,信息(数据)流扮演关键作用,信息流牵动物料流,进而带动资金流。在管理信息方面,福特用人工来传递信息,丰田用看板的方式,戴尔和Zara则通过巨额投资SAP系统来实现。可以想象在互联网时代,数据有可能在全链条低成本地打通,这势必加速价值流更快的流动、变现,一大批企业有望脱颖而出。

2、而价值流的起点,是客户定义价值而非企业

工业时代伟大的企业大多是“火箭发射式”的企业,即公司雇佣众多聪明的头脑,封闭式的秘密研发,然后突然发布一项新产品或新服务。这是典型的由企业来定义价值的做法。但产品和服务的价值只有满足特定用户需求才有存在的意义,价值只能由最终用户来确定,之前的企业虽然声称以消费者为中心,但更多的是“有心无力”,没有技术手段可以实现这一点。但互联网、社交网络和大数据提供了与客户对话沟通的工具和平台。

由客户来定义价值,第一要求与客户对话,这在互联网时代更容易实现,比如通过建立“消费者社区”,让客户反馈意见,甚至鼓励其参与到产品的研发设计、生产制造、品牌传播中来;第二要分析哪些价值是客户愿意买单的,哪些不是。对于价值流过程中停滞、浪费所造成的成本,客户是不会买单的。比如,客户不需要的产品功能的研发生产成本、为推广滞销产品花费的营销成本。客户只愿意为连续流动的价值买单,因为这不仅必要还产生实际的价值。

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3、转型升级是新技术应用、商业模式和组织方式“三位一体”的转型

作为通用目的的重大技术革命,将引发商业模式和组织方式的革命化,而不单单是新技术的应用。100多年前的电力革命,使得机械动力不再稀缺,工厂可以24小时运转,首先带来了生产方式的变革。手工作坊开始被大批量流水线的福特制生产所取代,相应地出现了泰勒制的组织方式(金字塔式的组织架构、公司制),以及以厂商驱动为主要特征的B2C商业模式。B2C商业模式可以概括为大批量生产+大众营销(宝洁长期都是世界最大的广告主)+大规模销售(如商业连锁经营)。

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互联网作为基础设施的普及应用正在引起类似的商业革命。传统的金字塔式的组织架构正在松动,平台+个人(创客、小组)的新型组织模式正在崛起。组织的职能也在发生变化:管理转向服务、控制转向协同,激励转向赋能。商业模式方面,B2C正转向C2B,即客户驱动的商业模式。迄今为止,大部分传统企业的互联网转型,还处在初级阶段,更多的还是“卖货思想”,即将互联网看作是一个新增的“渠道”,其组织方式和商业模式都没有发生根本性的改变。

4、转型升级也是产供销一体化的转型,这导致“新纵向一体化企业”重现

戴尔公司CEO迈克尔.戴尔曾经感慨到:“对手之所以很难和戴尔较量……就在于来自顾客的信息以各种方式通过制造加工又流向顾客那里,这种信息的协调方式只可能运用于垂直一体化的企业之中。”一个完整的价值流涉及生产、配销和销售全部环节,运用价值流的方法一定要超出企业边界,否则终将受制于上下游的制约。比如,电商服装卖家想学Zara的“快时尚”模式,一定会受制于工厂的柔性化、快反能力;而工厂是否能快速交货,又受制于面辅料供应商;面辅料厂商又受制于印染厂的生产周期和批量情况。因此,让价值流不要停滞下来,需要产业链各环节通力合作才能实现。

产供销一体化的转型意味着产业链上下游所有环节都要为适应互联网而改变。试想,一个传统的服装企业,仅仅是在互联网上卖货,生产模式还是单一款式大批量生产、生产周期还是几十天到数月,分销模式还是“订货会”模式,如何能适应市场需求变化?转型又怎能成功?反之,零售端的变化也会倒逼分销体系、生产制造模式去变革。我们确实也看到越来越多的品牌商,正在改变一年四次的订货会,辅助以补货制,像线下神店都市丽人、快鱼等品牌,甚至直接用补货制替代订货制。

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产供销一体化转型的前提是销售数据、库存数据与生产数据全程打通,高度协同。零售端用多品种、小批量(浅库存)、快速交货来捕捉市场需求,供应链端根据不同SKU(单品)畅销、平销、滞销实际需求情况进行柔性化生产,连续补货;即使发现爆款也是多批次、小批量的连续生产补货(我们看到“流”的状态出现了),保证产品全生命周期内不断货,同时也没有过多库存。同时,仓储的地理布局也要尽量使价值流一次完成,比如,完全可以从工厂的产地仓直接发货给最终客户,不要工厂发到品牌商仓库再折腾一次。要实现上述的局面,首先要转变观念,愿意彼此分享数据。但是,正是由于观念问题,导致沟通教育的成本很高,导致先进模式的先行者只能在那些具有创新意识,同时又在上下游有控制权的企业中出现,新的“纵向一体化”的企业会重现。在企业对外协作、服务外包日益盛行的今天,这种做法可能会被认为是走回头路。但这就是先进模式与落后意识冲突的结果。同时,这种模式目的是实现供应链的真正协同,与上一轮纵向一体化浪潮的垄断经营出发点截然不同。

5、在商业模式转换中,对C2B最大的误区在于定制和预售

C2B作为互联网时代的主流商业模式已经日渐清晰。但目前业界对C2B最大的误解是局限为定制和预售模式。C2B,即客户驱动的商业模式,要点在于“客户驱动”,客户决定卖什么?生产什么?生产多少?进货多少?卖多少?C2B可简单归纳为“客户定义价值+SNS营销+拉动式配送体系+柔性化生产”。大规模定制完全符合上述四条,并作为C2B的一种极端模式备受推崇,没错。但这并不是全部,代表不了大多数的商业场景。

从戴尔开始,到青岛红领、尚品宅配、索菲亚家居,所有能够实施大规模化定制的工作原理都是相通的,即内部部件的标准化和模组化,通过有限的组合来应对外部需求个性化。但是,并非所有的商品和服务都可以内部模组化,比如服装领域的时装、家居行业的实木家具,以及更多的不需要客户直接参与设计的行业。大多数时候,消费者只是表达喜欢和不喜欢,并没有能力直接参与设计研发,并不需要定制化生产。在更普遍意义的商业场景中,消费需求呈现长尾市场。我们来画一幅商业需求的频谱图:福特的T型车作为需求的一端(或者IPhone手机),完全个性化定制商品在另外一端。除了最左侧的极端情况,大部分的需求都需要多品种、多款式的商品去满足。例如,喜欢某一款式的有几十个人,喜欢另外一个款式的可能有几万人、几十万人。在这里,区别B2C还是C2B不是看批量的大小、品类的多少,而是看商业逻辑。只要是以消费者需求为中心,以实际需求驱动型的商业模式就是C2B模式。进一步讲,即使是对单一品种最终销量几十万、几百万的“爆款”如果采用客户定义价值,配以拉动式配送体系和柔性生产,也是非常完美的C2B模式。因此,对于传统企业而言,除了营销端的重塑之外,更重要的是改造供应链系统,即由“推式供应链”改为“拉动式供应链”。即用更多商品品种去测试市场,然后根据市场实际需求,来决定生产什么?生产多少?补多少货、买给谁?供需匹配的结果是,每一个人的特定需求都能够得到满足。

6、关于未来组织,“大平台+小前端”已初具形态

无论是整个社会层面,还是单个企业层面,“大平台+小前端”的组织形态已具雏形。在社会层面,全球前十大互联网公司都是平台型或具备开放平台特征的企业。例如,淘宝网、eBay等企业,以平台方式提供信息、支付、信用、云计算、物流等一系列基础设施服务,支持数百万小微企业和个人创业者,开创了“巨型平台+小微企业”的先河。本地生活服务方面,Uber、嘀嘀出行、河狸家、好厨师、懒人家政等互联网服务平台上将每个司机、美甲师、厨师、保姆“去组织化”,进而激发为一个个自主经营体,而平台则提供信息对接、信用评价、支付结算、后勤保障、教育培训等支撑服务。

更为重要的是企业内部的变化,正在朝着海尔提出的“企业平台化、员工创业化”方向发展。海尔提出的企业平台化,就是打破原有的科层制体系,改变上级管理下级的模式,转变成“为员工提供创业服务”的孵化器,而8万名员工则转变为2000多个小微的自主经营体。另一家互联网服装品牌韩都衣舍也建立了200多个高度灵活的“小组制”来应对外部需求的复杂性。太阳底下没有新鲜事,无论小组制还是员工创客,都可以看做是发轫于德鲁克的“联邦分权制”或是稻盛和夫的“阿米巴”。但是真正有价值的思考是,这一切变革在互联网条件下有什么不同?答案还是数据和信息的更低成本的传递、共享,使得各类资源更容易地赋能给前端组织,进而推动“平台+个人”的组织模式能大行其道。更本质的问题,这种组织变革的目的是什么?还是回到价值流分析上。可以想象,服装、家具、生鲜食品、珠宝等不同种类的商品其价值流(从原材料到客户最终购买)是迥然不同的;同一商品下,不同品种的价值流也是不一样的(例如,沙发与书架)。传统的部门职能制已经阻碍了价值的流动性,而阿米巴形式下的小组制从设计、生产、物流到销售全流程负责,可以保障每一款式的价值流动更顺畅和快速。

7、互联网时代的企业必须“系统思考”,而不是局部优化

世界从来没有像现在这样连为一个整体。无论是产供销一体化转型,还是技术、组织与商业模式的“三位一体”转型企业在转型过程中必须系统思考。企业是一个系统,有研发、采购、生产、营销等多个组成部分,系统思考要求摒弃“局部优化”的思想。企业各方面绩效改善一定是系统改变的结果,但是并非所有的改变能推动系统的改善。例如,近年来,一些传统企业为追求低劳动力成本,外迁产能到东南亚或中西部而远离国内消费地,导致交货周期拉长;工厂采取自动化设备,大大提高了产能,但是市场需求不足导致库存增加等问题。同时,系统思考也要求突破企业边界,按照整个产品来思考。如果每个企业只从自己角度考虑很容易走偏,导致价值流阻塞。

系统思考要求企业审视价值链中的薄弱环节,聚焦在能提高整体产出,牵一发而动全身的环节上。对于大部分传统企业而言,互联网作为广域的连接工具,更大的改造环节在跨企业的供应链上。供应链不仅是保证价值流能流动起来,而且对于营销端增加顾客的吸引力,降低流量成本具有重要作用。

8、快速反应比试图去预测市场更重要

很多传统企业的商业模式是以预测市场为基点的。基于对市场需求的预测来研发新产品,安排产能、做仓储布局。但是,市场需求是变化莫测的,以预测市场为基础的商业模式存在极大风险。即使在大数据条件,准确预测市场也是一件很不靠谱的事情,定律总会出现,特别是在一个局部市场。比如,下个月杭州真丝碎花连衣裙的需求是多少?世界上需求最稳定的商品只有食盐。大家电等的市场需求虽然相对平稳,但大数据的预测准确度也只能达到70%左右。对于绝大多数的商品和服务,需求是波动的。基于需求预测的商业模式带来的后果是经常是产能不足或过剩,产品滞销或断货。因此,企业建立一种弹性的、快速满足市场需求的能力至关重要。例如,对于大多数消费品企业来说,去测试市场而不要去预测市场,同时根据真实的市场需求,快速生产、快速配送、快速销售。这时候,生产成本高一点、物流配送成本多一些并不十分重要,在更高的折扣区间把商品销售出去完全可以Cover这些成本。因此,你不难理解为什么Zara依然把50%的产能部署在人工工资每月1800欧元的西班牙,不惜用飞机把商品运送到全球各地的店铺去。

9、商业关系由价值链向价值网演化

传统企业习惯讲价值链,喜欢做价值链的主导者,这背后隐含着“控制”的思想,通过榨取价值链上下游企业的利润来实现自身利益最大化。但在互联网条件下,价值链会向价值网络演化,合作伙伴之间通过数据和信息分享,形成网状连接关系,居于商业中心,同时掌握主导权的只有客户一个角色。

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在电商领域,越来越多的企业选择第三方合作伙伴。比如,第三方仓储服务商出现,就要求品牌商与仓储服务商分享商品、订单和客户数据,以便他们更好地协同。杭州的一家农产品电商,将对供货商、物流服务商、客服水平的考核权转交给客户:客户通过产品质量、发货速度、包装是否破损、纠纷解决情况等的评价,对这些服务商进行直接考核。在这种模式下,商业关系已经在发生本质性变化。

互联网时代的企业转型是百年一遇技术变革下的宏大命题,这一进程才刚刚开始,相关的思考和论述也需要不断迭代更新。这方面,伟大的企业家是变革大潮的弄潮儿,所有那些经营成功的企业,都有可以借鉴的闪光之处。我们相信,无论线上线下,商业的本质是一样的,需要思考的是以互联网、云计算和大数据为代表的新一轮技术革命到底带来那些深刻的变化。我们也愿意与业界朋友携手一起探讨传统产业的转型之道。

(来源:阿里研究院,文|游五洋 阿里研究院资深专家)

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全国有 1.7 亿工作者的纺织服装产业链,互联网能为它做什么?

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