企极 (CHG) | 预言教父说:这4大趋势至少影响企业20年
谈到颠覆,就不得不提苹果颠覆了诺基亚,滴滴颠覆了传统的打车,颠覆发生在行业发展的成熟阶段,或是跨界,或是自我颠覆。随着人工智能的出现,机器越来越多的深入到我们的日常生活,许多企业都看到了它的颠覆潜力,未来又将面临怎样的爆发局面?
凯文·凯利, 预言教父, 4大趋势, 企极, 企极科技, CHG
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预言教父说:这4大趋势至少影响企业20年

KevinKelly

200年前,蒸汽机是这个世界上最先进的技术。然而一开始,正如许多新技术的应用那样,蒸汽机不是很好用——产品差,风险高,利润率低,前途未卜,因此被当时世界上许多大航海公司忽视了。然而,这项技术完善之后,所有帆船公司都破产了。

IBM在1980年代时是最先进、最复杂的技术公司代表,每个商学院都研究它,每个人都想为它工作。第一台个人电脑的名字是Altair,它就像个玩具一样,只有通过开关的开来关去才可以编程。在IBM看来,这只是一个随便的玩具,但哈佛大学有一个名叫比尔•盖茨的学生,觉得Altair值得一用,于是就为它开发软件。随着软件越来越完善,电脑的用处也越来越多,之后,个人电脑从某种程度上来说颠覆了IBM。

大家可以看到,软件公司颠覆了电脑行业,颠覆是来自行业外部。Windows曾经是最先进的软件,微软是最火爆的公司,但后来出现了搜索引擎,于是谷歌成为世界上最受关注的公司。谁会来颠覆谷歌呢?应该不是一家搜索引擎公司,可能是一家卖书的公司,也可能是一个卖手机的公司,也可能是一家社交媒体公司。而最重要的是,在刚刚开始的时候,新技术风险很大、利润很小又前途缥缈。任何一家大型的成功企业都觉得不应该投资新技术,而初创公司可能别无选择。然而,如果你真的想要抓住下一个创新点,那就必须在这些领域里寻找。因为这里就是创新的来源。我在新书《必然》里讲了12个长期趋势,这些力量在未来20年乃至30年都可能持续有效。其中4个,与大多数的企业都是相关的。它们告诉我们该做什么,该接受什么。

当这些趋势来临,与其阻击,不如投怀送抱。

趋势1:共享

共享中的一部分就是“共享经济”。Uber是最大的出租车公司,尽管它没有自己的车队;Facebook是最大的媒体内容公司,然而它并不拥有内容;阿里巴巴是世界上最大的零售商,然而它没有自己的库存;Airbnb是世界上最大的住宿平台,然而它没有自己的房产……

所有权似乎不如以往那样重要了。实际上,获取渠道要比所有权更好。所有权意味着责任,有了所有权,就要负责备份、存储、维护、升级、归类等等。如果你没有所有权,便没有以上烦恼了。因此,关键还是要有获取渠道。新兴科技恰恰允许我们无论何时何地都能即时地获得获取渠道。

渠道不仅仅关乎所有权,不在于能成就一家公司。如今我不再购买电影,因为我有在Netflix获取电影这个渠道;我不再购买音乐,因为可以在Spotify上获取音乐资源;我不再买书,因为可以在亚马逊上获得图书;我也不买游戏……作为一名消费者,我再也不用买东西了,我发现获取渠道要比单单的所有权更加强大。

“共享经济”使这种情况成为可能。获取渠道必须是即叫即到的,否则没用。大家可以想想,还有什么东西可以变成“即需即用”的模式?无论在硅谷,还是中国,很多人都在想着模仿Uber改造别的事情,譬如食物、家具、衣服、医疗器械等等。

美国硅谷有大约9千家创业公司正努力把一些事物转变成以共享为基础的服务,然而很多都无疾而终。这就有点像疯狂的淘金潮,人们去想有什么东西可以用新的方式、新的技术变成一种服务。

我认为,能共享的必会共享。对于想创业的人来说,问题便是,现在有什么东西是还未共享但是可以共享的?

趋势2:互动

在西方,现在都是通过屏幕来展示我们的文化,我想在中国也是。我们曾经有一种文化,大家都会看书,都会写下东西、集结成书。但现在,每个人都有屏幕,每件事都在屏幕上发生,因此文化缺少了活力。

将来任何一个平面的表面都可以成为一个屏幕,屏幕将变得极其廉价,并将覆盖一切事物的表面,你的衣服、桌子、墙,一切都可以成为屏幕,包括常见的可变事物,也可以把它们变成屏幕。因为我们有第二块、第三块屏幕,我们看向屏幕时,也在使用屏幕,有时我们会同时看着三个屏幕,所以,其实屏幕有一整个的生态系统。重点在于,屏幕改变了一些地方,一本书,在书里面的内容是固定的,非常确定、明确,他的著者有一种权威性,书和印刷品都有一种权威性。

而现在我们把所有东西都搬到了屏幕上,都是流动性的,随时变更的。我们在屏幕上的东西随时随刻都在变化,这改变了我们的文化,权威性不再,对于每个专家都有一个对应的反专家,所有结局都是开放性的,你对于真理的理解将会改变,因为没有权威信息告诉你什么是对的,须自己去证明真理,自己参与进去并写出真理。拥有屏幕的世界很不同,它们会与真理互动。

我们现在用自己的身体与这些屏幕来进行互动,不光是敲击键盘,未来你可以用整个身体与数据、电脑互动。即使是手势也能让我们与事物互动,它们可以辨识手势及以外的东西,可以辨识出人的眼睛在看哪儿,屏幕会反馈回来:跟着我们的目光,看我们在看什么。

现在还不止是看!电脑能够识别人类所有不同的情绪:当你看电影的时候,如果注意力不集中,或是感到困惑、无聊抑或恐怖,看过的内容会回应在观看时产生的情绪。这意味着,电脑和我们制作出来的东西更类似于一种交流,我们和它处于一个关系网中,我们看它,它会看回来。就像我能看到你的脸、你的情绪,和你对谈,根据你的反应调整话题,电脑将来也能做同样的事情。

它们将实时适应我们,所以拥有这种可调节的情绪的屏幕将在你看它的时候也看向你。虚拟现实就是整体的人整体的高度相互作用,虚拟现实就是当你戴上头盔、戴上手套和套装,或是其他什么装备,它会追踪你的整个身体,看进你的眼睛、所有一切,并会给你带去令人惊异的感受。

趋势3:流动

你所涉及的事物都在流动——无论是数据、农业、住宿、交通,还是教育——所有的商业都是数据商业。数据重要的一点就是,它们并非是用来收藏、存储的。它们需要的是流动、与其他数据相连接。将数据与其他的数据相连,并且处于流动状态,它们才能发挥出更为强大的作用,因此,计算机行业的三个阶段,首先是办公层面,比如文件、目录桌面,然后就转移到网页、链接。

现在我们正处于第三个阶段,就是“流”,正是目前我们在经历的阶段,别想文件、目录、网页链接什么的了,想一想“流”,像我们熟悉的微信流、微博流、推特流、脸书流、Instagram流、电视屏幕下方滚动的信息、音乐流等等,它们并不是静止不动的,时时刻刻都在流动。

一种“流”,我是在8年前创建的,我在想现在我们佩戴的设备是怎样跟踪记录我们自身的状况的。任何事物都能够被跟踪、记录,身体的每个部位、一个人的一生,我们可以对其量化,然后进行测量、跟踪、记录。一开始,一些人运用一些设备,千方百计地跟踪记录自己的情况。

现在有许许多多的手表等设备都被用来跟踪记录,它们记录各色事物,比如睡眠质量、睡眠模式、脑电波、葡萄糖含量、血糖、血压等等,我的一个朋友就说这好比星际航行采用的测量仪器,只要接触到这些仪器,就可以知道诊断结果。把记录仪置于太阳穴,它就可以读出你的脑电波、血压以及氧含量等等。

关键是,甚至Apple腕表也有跟踪记录的功能。任何你认为可以测量的东西都能够测量出来。由此得知,我们有一大良机去开发、制造感应器,去测量能够被测量的事物。这样做意义重大,因为我们在搜集、测量、连接这些信息。你一生都会记录这些信息,通过记录你所有事物的日志,你可以知道自己正常状态,你的体温每天、每月、每个季度都会有变化;凭借多年累积下来的体温曲线,你能够掌握自己的正常状况,一旦知道这一点,就可以直接定制适用于自身的药物。

我们说3D打印技术,可以直接生产出一剂供你服用的药物。服药后,用感应器来评估药物的疗效,第二天,它会根据之前的评估结果来调整用量,每个人按需定制,这应该是信息流动的最终目标吧?我们不仅在自我跟踪记录,同时别人也会跟踪记录我们。地球上的60亿人都在记录着彼此的一切。有的时候我们交出自己的信息,我们一登录网站,就允许公司跟踪记录我们的信息。

像汤姆•克鲁斯要是逃跑的话,为他定制的广告也会始终跟随着他,他逃不开这些广告,因为它们在跟踪记录他。这就是我们的未来,任何能够被跟踪记录的东西都会被跟踪记录。问题是,我们该如何应对,我们不能将其终止,那该怎么做呢?怎样才能使其变得更具吸引力、更好呢?

趋势4:认知

我想谈的最后一个趋势,也是我认为最重要的一个趋势:认知。这个词显得有点高端,它的意思就是人工智能+物品智能(smartness of things)。我认为,这将是未来二十年最大的变化之一。我对这领域目前的发展状况的了解越多,我就越深信这将是一个“大事件”。

我们现在可以瞥见人工智能的应用情景。譬如你可以对着手机跟Siri对话,或者在安卓上使用等效的服务。我们现在还有了实时翻译的应用,可以翻译文本,直接把西班牙语译成英语,把汉语译成日语,还还原了同样的字体。谷歌现在甚至有了同声传译的应用:我说英语,应用能说出汉语,就像今天的同传那样。别人说汉语,我听到的是英语。这应用的翻译水准比不上今天这里的真人同传,但起码比什么翻译也没有要强,而且这技术每隔18个月都会改进——人工翻译并不能这么快地改进。这些就是人工智能可以办到的事情。谷歌有一项人工智能技术,可以观察照片,然后告诉你照片里有些什么。我往谷歌上传了14万张照片,之后我可以对谷歌说:“把所有我和妈妈一起拍的照片找出来”,谷歌就能把所有这些照片显示出来。把所有有船或者有海盗帽的照片找出来,然后谷歌就会把所有这些照片找出来。这并不是因为我给照片做过标签,而是因为谷歌能够“看懂”并“记住”图像。谷歌还有学会玩电脑游戏的技术——不是玩的技术,而是学会怎么玩的技术,两者差别很大。譬如,有一个新款街机游戏,8小时之后,机器能学会怎么玩,并打赢人类玩家。

我谈的都是谷歌,不过当然,百度、腾讯也正在人工智能领域重金投入,微软、Facebook同样如此。这些大公司拥有开发人工智能技术所需的海量数据。开发人工智能技术需要庞大数量的数据,数量越多,技术越强大。今天人工智能作诊断可以比医生更准确,办案可以比律师做得更好。今天,从旧金山到北京的航班上,机师只操作8分钟,其余时间都是机器控制。汽车的自动档比人好,汽车里有防抱死制动系统(ABS)。无论是谷歌、百度,还是腾讯,研发人工智能的目的,是把IQ做成一种服务,这体现了刚才说的“从所有权到服务”的转变。这种服务以后会跟电力一样普通。一百年前,工业革命让一切都自动化,手工变成机工。同样,人工智能服务就会像电一样,你无须自行发电,只需要购买,而谷歌、百度这样拥有海量数据的大公司有卖。你要多少IQ,你就买多少。

人工智能其实是云端技术的核心。我们不能光把数据上传到云端就完事了,还需要人工智能技术去做例如自动标记的事情。我们需要用人工智能去发明新的人工智能。人工智能技术越多,就能产生越多新的人工智能技术。越多人用人工智能技术,这技术就会变得越聪明;当这技术变得越聪明,也就会越多人用它。人工智能就是这样具有网络效应。

我预测,未来二十年,会有千万家创业公司,虽然做的事情各不同,但都会把人工智能作为一种有偿服务加入自己的业务。我们将会看见旧有的事情加入了人工智能,产生了千万种不同的结果。

我们将会走向何处?无人驾驶、虚拟现实等事物总令人难以置信。刚才我说,屏幕会变得很低廉,以后墙上到处都是。而以前当我说电脑会变得很廉价,门上也可以镶一台进去时,大家哈哈大笑:“放门上作甚么?”现在,宾馆房间的门把上就装了台小型电脑,给你刷卡进入。是难以置信,但很多时候还是相信为好。

而很多将成真的事物正是依赖分享、去中心化技术而实现的。分享和去中心化的技术让我们能够在前所未有的水平上进行创造。Facebook的诞生和成功完全有赖于互联网、智能手机,这是以前不能实现的。科技让以前不可能的事情变成可能。

我想强调的是,我们才处于这一时代的开头。我们还处于互联网的夏商周。今天的模样,不代表以后的模样。二十年后会发生什么?有一点我倒很确定,二十年后最伟大的产品今天还未诞生,因此现在还不晚。

(转载自中欧商业评论)

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